Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the
        European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method

        with Fabrizio Coricelli and Luigi Moretti

        This paper presents new estimates of the economic benefits from economic and political integration.
        Using the synthetic counterfactuals method, we estimate how GDP per capita and labour productivity
        would have behaved for the countries that joined the European Union (EU) in the 1973, 1980s, 1995
        and 2004 enlargements, if those countries had not joined the EU. We find large positive effects from
        EU membership but these differ across countries and over time (they are only negative for Greece).
        We calculate that without deep economic and political integration, per capita incomes would have
        been, on average, approximately 12 percent lower.
 

         Download working paper version (May 2014):       IZA DP          CEPR DP

         Appendix here
 
         Summaries of this paper:     VoxEu (poorer countries)    VoxEu (richer countries)       The Economist
 
 
 
 

 
 
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