From Riches to Rags, and Back? Explaining the Growth Trajectory of Argentina since the 1890s

        with Menelaos Karanasos and Bin Tan

        May 2011

        Argentina is the only country in the world that was developed in 1900 and developing in 2000. Although various
        underlying reasons have been identified (chiefly political instability, financialdevelopment, inflation, trade openness,
        and international financial integration), no study has quantitatively assessed their relative importance. This paper tries to
        fill this gap. We use the power-ARCH framework and annual data since 1896 to study how important are these factors
        vis-à-vis both growth and growth volatility. Our results suggest that financial development, trade openness and political
        instability are the main factors, with important di¤erences in terms of their short versus long-run behavior.

        May  2011 version (fully revised, new results):   PDF

        Suggested soundtrack for this paper click here  (for a tango titled "Argentina First World")


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