Growth, Volatility and Political Instability:
        Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

        with Menelaos Karanasos
 

        Published in Economics Letters 100 (1), 135-137, July 2008              ( PDF )
 

        What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth
        directly or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions in a power-ARCH framework
        using annual time series data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. We show that while assassinations and strikes
        (“informal” political instability) have a direct negative effect on economic growth, “formal” political instability
        (constitutional and legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact.
 

         Download working paper:         IZA DP 3087         CEPR DP 6524           WDI DP 891
 
 

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